a16z on X: .@tylercowen on why AI creates more jobs than it destroys
TL;DR · AI 摘要
AI 通过提升个体效率，可能创造更多工作机会，尤其在能源、医疗和老年护理等领域，但并非所有工作都能被自动化取代。
核心要点
- AI 让少数人能完成过去无法完成的工作量，推动新公司和项目的产生。
- 能源、电网等基础设施需要数十年改造，AI 不能单独解决。
- 老年护理领域预计 15%–20% 的工作将由人类完成，AI 只能辅助。
结构提纲
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AI 通过提升个体效率，可能创造更多工作机会。
能源、电网等领域需要数十年改造，AI 不能单独解决。
AI 将推动更多医疗试验和科研想法，但纯模拟测试尚不可行。
- ·老年护理
老年护理将继续需要人类参与，AI 只能辅助。
思维导图
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- AI 与就业
- 提升效率
- 新公司与项目
- 能源与基础设施
- 数十年改造
- 医疗与科研
- 更多试验想法
- 老年护理
- 人类参与 15%–20%
金句 / Highlights
值得收藏与分享的关键句。
AI 让少数人能完成过去无法完成的工作量，推动新公司和项目的产生。
能源、电网等基础设施需要数十年改造，AI 不能单独解决。
老年护理领域预计 15%–20% 的工作将由人类完成，AI 只能辅助。
"One of the neatest properties of current AI models is they allow a small number of individuals working with AI to really do a lot more work than was possible previously."
"This will mean more companies, more projects, https://t.co/qILE66yFe5" / X
.
on why AI creates more jobs than it destroys: "One of the neatest properties of current AI models is they allow a small number of individuals working with AI to really do a lot more work than was possible previously." "This will mean more companies, more projects, more nonprofits, just more ventures." "One area is generally energy, electricity, the grid... It's completely screwed up. It will take twenty years, thirty years, forty years to fix... The AIs cannot do that on their own." "The biomedical sector and medical trials, there will be many, many, many more ideas to test. AIs will help with the testing, but I don't think pure testing by simulation will be possible anytime soon." "Simply care for the elderly. There will be robots, personal companions. We have this already. But the elderly also will want human care. It wouldn't surprise me if in the future, fifteen, twenty percent of all jobs were elderly care." "Luis Garicano had an excellent online essay. He referred to what he called 'messy jobs': jobs where it's hard to explain exactly what the job is, but on a given day you're doing eleven different things, and it requires coordination and figuring out what you ought to do next and getting other people to help you... There's a real future in messy jobs." Tyler Cowen with
2:30
Quote
David George
@DavidGeorge83
May 6
The "AI Job Apocalypse" Is a Complete Fantasy
The AI Alarmist, “Permanent Underclass” panic isn’t a convincing story. It isn’t even a new story. It’s the “lump-of-labor” fallacy, with updated branding. The “lump-of-labor” fallacy claims there is...